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CIO Insights 3Q26

Equities to Watch

Here are your #ideas2invest

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CIO Market Pulse &ndash; Warsh Confusion

Long-end Treasury yields surged as the Fed&rsquo;s dovish messaging and renewed US-Iran tensions fuelled inflation concerns as energy prices trend higher.
S...

CIO Market Pulse – Warsh Confusion


US: Fed&rsquo;s hold amid cross currents. The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.75% in its July meeting. The vote was 9-3, notable for the highest number of dissents in a decade. Economists had largely ...

Economics Weekly: Fed’s Options



CIO Market Pulse &ndash; Oil, Tariffs &amp; Inflation

Renewed Middle East tensions and tariff escalation reignited inflation fears; Oil prices above USD100/bbl driving bond yields higher and weigh ...

CIO Market Pulse – Oil, Tariffs & Inflation


Global: Varying calculations for central banks. Conflicts in the Middle East and the AI cycle have driven up prices this year. In its July update, the IMF projects that global inflation will rise fro...

Economics Weekly: Inflation vs. Interest Rates


Structural demand thesis for gas and LNG remains intact. In an era increasingly defined by energy security concerns and the imperative of energy transition, natural gas and LNG are poised to retain t...

Global Gas and LNG Plays

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Equity Strategy


AI acceleration is shifting the supply-chain opportunity towards critical choke points. Electrical components, including transformers, switchgear, power-distribution units, transfer switches and pane...

AI Bottlenecks Fuel the Next Growth Wave


Long-term tailwinds from out-licensing growth. China&rsquo;s biotech out-licensing momentum remains strong, reflecting the improving quality and global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drug pipe...

Innovative Drug Sector: Out-licensing Continues


Three steps forward, two steps back for global energy supply. The MOU between the United States and Iran has effectively unravelled over the past week, with negotiations deteriorating rapidly and giv...

Global Equities: Winners in an Age of Energy Security


US earnings focus: Sensitivity of corporate earnings to forward valuations. Market expectations are high as we head into the 2Q26 earnings season, with consensus forecasting US earnings growth of c.2...

US Equities: Riding the AI Capex Cycle via US Financials


FCF bottoming out as capex moderates. Street expects capex growth to moderate in FY27F and decelerate sharply in FY28F. Allianz Trade&rsquo;s economic research projects 51% capex growth in 2026, slow...

Hyperscalers’ Free Cash Flow May Surprise in 2027

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Fixed Income Strategy


Chaos theory. Over the last few weeks, Japan and the United States launched a rare joint currency intervention&mdash;the first major coordinated G7 action since 2011&mdash;spending nearly USD59bn to ...

Credit Strategy: Land of the Rising Yields II


Flattening or steepening? Kevin Warsh in his first meeting as Fed Chair vowed to fight inflation and deliver price stability, and the markets rewarded him with credibility &ndash; short-end rates ros...

Credit Strategy: Operation Untwist

Recent US-Iran tensions could keep inflation higher, making large Fed rate cuts less likely. While AI may help lower inflation over time, its impact is unlikely to arrive soon enough. For investors, w...

Global Credit 3Q26 | The Cost of Conflict



Dawn of a new Fed. The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, made his mark by leaving out his dot; we think it communicates a lot by saying nothing at all (more on that later). First, the facts: Markets inter...

Credit Strategy: Navigating the Warsh Era


Navigating a credit conundrum. At the start of 2Q26, we moved from an overweight to a neutral stance on fixed income, weighing two considerations. Yields were attractive, and with steady growth and r...

Liquid+ Strategy: Quality Carry at the Front-end

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Central Bank DilemmaThe Fed must make a difficult decision: tighten monetary policy to contain energy-driven inflation and risk stalling growth, or stay patient and run the danger of spiralling inflat...

CIO Insights 3Q26: Power Play

Middle East crises typically affect the global economy via oil prices. Prolonged disruption risks stagflation while brief standoffs will stabilise risk assets.

CIO Insights 2Q26: Resilience in Chaos

Fed&rsquo;s policies to end quantitative tightening and cut interest rates, alongside AI-related capex spending, will support US growth. Asia, including China, to resume growth momentum as tariff unce...

CIO Insights 1Q26: The Long Game

Global growth to slow on tariff policy uncertainties. Fed&rsquo;s rate cuts, Trump&rsquo;s fiscal stimulus policies, and AI-related capex will stave off recession in the US, but upside risk on inflati...

CIO Insights 4Q25: Ride The Trend

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